نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند
2 گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز
3 گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه شهرکرد
چکیده
در این مطالعه با استفاده از رویکرد مبتنی بر مفصل به شبیه سازی دبی خروجی سیلاب در رودخانه کارون پرداخته شده است. در این خصوص از اطلاعات سیلاب مورخ سیام نوامبر 2008 رودخانه کارون استفاده شد. با استفاده از توزیع های حاشیه ای ناکاگامی و پارتو تعمیم یافته، به بررسی توابع مفصل مختلف پرداخته شد که نتایج بیانگر برتری مفصل کلایتون با مقدار 9/4= بود. با توجه به توزیع های حاشیه ای و مفصل کلایتون، تحلیل فراوانی وقوع توأم جفت متغیر هیدروگراف ورودی و خروجی سیلاب انجام شد که منجر به ارائه منحنی تیپ در خصوص تخمین مقادیر مختلف هیدروگراف خروجی سیلاب متناظر با مقادیر هیدروگراف ورودی شد. این منحنی میتواند مقادیر خروجی هیدروگراف را با احتمالات مختلف و بر اساس مقادیر ورودی شبیه سازی کند. شبیه سازی مبتنی بر مفصل نیز با توجه به چگالی شرطی توابع مفصل نشان داد که ضریب همبستگی مقادیر شبیه‌سازی شده 7 درصد بیشتر از مقادیر مشاهداتی است. دقت و قطعیت شبیه سازی مقادیر خروجی هیدروگراف نیز با توجه به نمودار وایولین تائید شد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که مدل شبیه سازی مبتنی بر مفصل، کارایی بالایی در شبیه سازی دبی خروجی هیدروگراف سیلاب دارد. نتایج شبیه سازی مبتنی بر مفصل بر اساس آماره های جذر میانگین مربعات خطا و نش-ساتکلیف، به ترتیب میزان خطای 93/35 مترمکعب بر ثانیه و کارایی 96/0 را نشان داد. چگالی شرطی مورد استفاده در این تحقیق سبب ارائه رابطه پیشنهادی در خصوص شبیه سازی دبی هیدروگراف خروجی به شرط وقوع هیدروگراف ورودی سیلاب در منطقه مورد مطالعه با کارایی 66 درصد شد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Application of Two-Dimensional Copulas in Simulation of Flood Discharge Outlet
نویسندگان [English]
- Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi 1
- Faeshad Ahmadi 2
- Rasoul Mirabbasi 3
1 University of Birjand
2 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources,, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz
3 Department of Water Engineering, Shahrekord University
چکیده [English]
In this study, using the copula-based approach, the simulation of the flood discharge in the Karun River has been studied. In this regard, the flood in 11/30/2008 of the Karun River was used. Using the Nakagami and generalized Pareto marginal distributions, various copula functions were investigated, and the results showed the superiority of the Clayton copula with a parameter value of . According to Clayton copula and marginal distributions, the analysis of the frequency of occurrence of the pair variable of inflow and outflow hydrographs was carried out, and the results led to the presentation of a typical curve regarding the estimation of different values of the outflow hydrograph corresponding to the values of the inflow hydrograph. This curve can simulate the output values of the hydrograph with different probability and based on the input values. Copula-based simulation, according to the conditional density of copula functions showed that the correlation coefficient of the simulated values is 7% higher than the observed values. The accuracy and certainty of simulating the output values of the hydrograph was also confirmed according to the violin plot. The results of this research showed that the copula-based simulation model has a high efficiency in simulating the output flow of the flood hydrograph. The results of the copula-based simulation, based on the root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe statistics, showed an error rate of 35.93 cubic meters per second and an efficiency of 0.96, respectively. The conditional density used in this research led to the presentation of a proposed equation regarding the simulation of the flood hydrograph outlet under the condition of the occurrence of the flood hydrograph inlet in the study area with an efficiency of 66%.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Flood Discharge
- Routing
- Copula
- Karun
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